- 15 OktQ3 Review
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- 22 JulVector 2021 Semi-Annual Review
- 25 JunWhy we still like value
- 25 Mai'Transitory' Inflation
- 22 AprReversal to the mean?
- 17 MärVector's take on sustainable finance
- 09 MärSustainability-related disclosures in the financial services sector (SFDR)
- 19 FebDavid versus Goliath: An analysis of 2020 stock market performance
- 30 DezVector 2020 Annual Review
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- 25 SepAre better times for quant investing on the horizon?
- 26 AugFama/French going through its biggest drawdown since 1963
- 17 JulVector 2020 Semi-Annual Review
- 25 JunA Look At Post-Corona Market Valuations
- 25 MaiUnprecedented times call for unprecedented measures...
- 23 AprVector's outlook on the Corona Crisis
- 13 MärMarket correction: sense or sentiment?
- 17 FebThe market and sector concentration
- 14 JanNotice to shareholders
- 31 DezVector 2019 Annual Review
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- 15 NovThe Alpha Lifecycle
- 16 OktVector 2019 Q3 Review
- 10 SepA new prospectus
- 14 AugMarket Review: July
- 10 JulVector 2019 Semi-annual Review
- 14 JunAre factor premia disappearing?
- 21 MaiHow persistent is regional outperformance?
- 12 AprMarket recovery: sense or sentiment?
- 12 MärMarkets solidify recovery
- 12 FebStock Markets Rebound
- 31 DezVector 2018 Annual Review
- 14 Dez2019 (outrageous) predictions!
- 20 AugTemperatures and stock markets heat up
- 18 JulVector 2018 Semi-annual Review
- 14 JunDo exporters suffer during trade wars?
- 15 MaiStrong earnings put markets on the road to recovery
- 17 AprQ1 Overview
- 13 MärStock Markets: Episode VI: The return of volatility
- 02 MärVector wins Morningstar Germany and Belgium Awards!
- 22 FebVector Flexible wins De Tijd/L'Echo Awards for the third year in a row!
- 16 FebNavigator wins Morningstar France Award!
Why we still like value
25 Jun 2021
Value stocks (+15.7%) have made quite a comeback with respect to their more glamourous counterparts (+6.2%) in 2021. Yet, while there may be some hick ups along the road, we believe that - in the long run - the value premium still has a lot of catching up to do. In this newsletter we will discuss one of the reasons why we believe that value stocks have a good chance to outperform in the years to come.
The value spread is the difference between a value signal, like Price-to-Book or Price-to-Earnings, in value versus growth stocks over time. The spread for the Price-to-Book ratio is plotted in the graph below, which is taken from an article written by AQR.
As you can see, growth stocks tend to be 4 to 5 times more expensive than value stocks on average. The difference in valuation tends to be larger during periods of crises, but normalizes quickly after these events. Obviously, the spread is currently anchored well above its long term-average. Last year it reached an all time high as it toppled even the levels of dispersion that we have seen during the dotcom bubble and the financial crisis. Why is this good news for quantitative investors? Well, several authors argue that this spread contains useful information about the future returns of the value premium. For instance, a paper published recently in the Review of Finance finds that when the value spread is one standard deviation away from its mean a Value minus Growth portfolio’s return tends to be 17% higher during the subsequent 24 months than it would be when the premium is at its long-term average.
Near its peak growth stocks were about 12 times more expensive than value stocks, which is extremely rare as it is a 4.5 standard deviation event. So, even though value may have played a little catch-up during the last year the spread is still at an exceptionally high level. Obviously, this should be good news for everyone who has a horse in the race when it comes to value investing. As value remains an important tool in a quant’s kit, this should be a tailwind for Vector in the years to come.
Both Vector Navigator (+0.11%) and Vector Flexible (+0.27%) ended the month slightly outperforming their benchmarks. While the funds performed remarkably well during the first half of the month, we suffered during the second half as the rotation from growth into value reversed for a little while.
Werner, Thierry & Nils