- 31 DecVector 2019 Annual Review
- 17 DecFama/French going through its second biggest drawdown since 1963
- 15 NovThe Alpha Lifecycle
- 16 OctVector 2019 Q3 Review
- 10 SepA new prospectus
- 14 AugMarket Review: July
- 10 JulVector 2019 Semi-annual Review
- 14 JunAre factor premia disappearing?
- 21 MayHow persistent is regional outperformance?
- 12 AprMarket recovery: sense or sentiment?
- 12 MarMarkets solidify recovery
- 12 FebStock Markets Rebound
- 31 DecVector 2018 Annual Review
- 14 Dec2019 (outrageous) predictions!
- 20 AugTemperatures and stock markets heat up
- 18 JulVector 2018 Semi-annual Review
- 14 JunDo exporters suffer during trade wars?
- 15 MayStrong earnings put markets on the road to recovery
- 17 AprQ1 Overview
- 13 MarStock Markets: Episode VI: The return of volatility
- 02 MarVector wins Morningstar Germany and Belgium Awards!
- 22 FebVector Flexible wins De Tijd/L'Echo Awards for the third year in a row!
- 16 FebNavigator wins Morningstar France Award!
2019 (outrageous) predictions!
14 Dec 2018
There was a small rally towards the end of November, which caused the stock market to offset its earlier losses and even close the month on a 1.5% gain. Yet, with the benefit of hindsight, it is becoming clear that as we move towards the Christmas periods Santa Claus and stock markets alike may be draped in red. Of course, the question on everyone’s mind is how 2019 will turn out. While some look for the past as a roadmap, where 2016’s volatility was followed by an impressive rally, others state that the current situation is very different from back then. Of course, there is some truth to this statement… As we see the federal funds rate inch towards 3% in the United States it is clear that the monetary stimulus on the other side of the ocean has ended and the Fed will no longer provide the support it once did. In addition, equity valuations are also more inflated now than they were in 2016 and due to a real yield alternative in the United States, TINA (= there is no alternative) is slowly turning into TIARA (there is a real alternative). All perfectly good reasons to be slightly less bullish on equity.
Yet, both of predictions are well within the realm of possibilities and therefore perhaps a bit boring?! If you’re looking for something slightly more special, we urge you to read Saxo Bank’s 2019 “Outrageous Predictions”. Here, bankers discuss some black swan events that, while unlikely to occur, may have a profound impact on your portfolio. The following scenarios are discussed:
EU announces a debt jubilee
Apple “secures funding” for Tesla at $520/share
Trump tells Powell “you’re fired”
Prime Minister Corbyn sends GBPUSD to parity
Corporate credit crunch pushes Netflix into GE’s vortex
Australian central bank launches QE on housing bust Down Under
Germany enters recession
X-Class solar flare creates chaos and inflicts $2 trillion of damage
Global Transportation Tax (GTT) enacted as climate panic spreads
IMF and World Bank announce intent to stop measuring GDP, focus instead on productivity
An interesting read, which can be accessed via this link.
We wish you happy holidays.
Nils, Thierry and Werner