- 31 dec.Vector 2021 Annual Review
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- 17 aug.Chinese crackdowns
- 22 jul.Vector 2021 Semi-Annual Review
- 25 jun.Why we still like value
- 25 mei'Transitory' Inflation
- 22 apr.Reversal to the mean?
- 17 mrt.Vector's take on sustainable finance
- 09 mrt.Sustainability-related disclosures in the financial services sector (SFDR)
- 19 feb.David versus Goliath: An analysis of 2020 stock market performance
- 30 dec.Vector 2020 Annual Review
- 20 nov.Factor momentum
- 20 okt.How will the US elections influence your portfolio?
- 25 sep.Are better times for quant investing on the horizon?
- 26 aug.Fama/French going through its biggest drawdown since 1963
- 17 jul.Vector 2020 Semi-Annual Review
- 25 jun.A Look At Post-Corona Market Valuations
- 25 meiUnprecedented times call for unprecedented measures...
- 23 apr.Vector's outlook on the Corona Crisis
- 13 mrt.Market correction: sense or sentiment?
- 17 feb.The market and sector concentration
- 14 jan.Notice to shareholders
- 31 dec.Vector 2019 Annual Review
- 17 dec.Fama/French going through its second biggest drawdown since 1963
- 15 nov.The Alpha Lifecycle
- 16 okt.Vector 2019 Q3 Review
- 10 sep.A new prospectus
- 14 aug.Market Review: July
- 10 jul.Vector 2019 Semi-annual Review
- 14 jun.Are factor premia disappearing?
- 21 meiHow persistent is regional outperformance?
- 12 apr.Market recovery: sense or sentiment?
- 12 mrt.Markets solidify recovery
- 12 feb.Stock Markets Rebound
- 31 dec.Vector 2018 Annual Review
- 14 dec.2019 (outrageous) predictions!
- 20 aug.Temperatures and stock markets heat up
- 18 jul.Vector 2018 Semi-annual Review
- 14 jun.Do exporters suffer during trade wars?
- 15 meiStrong earnings put markets on the road to recovery
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- 13 mrt.Stock Markets: Episode VI: The return of volatility
- 02 mrt.Vector wins Morningstar Germany and Belgium Awards!
- 22 feb.Vector Flexible wins De Tijd/L'Echo Awards for the third year in a row!
- 16 feb.Navigator wins Morningstar France Award!
How persistent is regional outperformance?
21 mei 2019
Equity markets recorded significant gains for the fourth consecutive month in a row. The MSCI All countries index now stands 18.3% higher than it did around the turn of the year. The recovery has been most prevalent in the USA (+20.6%), which boasts a large and very well performing Technology sector. Emerging Markets lagged the USA with more than 6% (rising ‘only’ 14.5%). Asia’s most developed economy, Japan, had one of the weaker rebounds (+10.3%) so far.
The United States’ dominance over the last decade has been nothing less than spectacular, with the region outperforming the global equity markets by 38%. As the USA now roughly makes up 60% of the MSCI All Countries it is a mathematical certainty that when America outperforms the rest of the world underperforms this benchmark. And so, most larger regions did…
Emerging markets, which recovered exceptionally well after the financial crisis, completely lost their headstart over the next years and Europe appears to have underperformed the MSCI ACWI with the regularity of a Swiss watch!
Yet, what goes up generally does come down. If we go back in time even further and plot the trailing 5-year outperformance of the United States compared to Europe it is clear that this outperformance is mean-reverting. In other words, America tends to underperform Europe after prolonged periods of outperformance.
Vector, which is generally under allocated to the USA, has had to cope with a significant headwind from the United States’ dominance, especially over the last 4 quarters.
Vector Navigator recorded a gain of 2.47% in April, bringing its year-to-date gain to 15.54%. Vector Flexible, which has hedged a significant portion of the market risk, evidently wasn’t able to recover as well and ‘only’ gained 5.44% so far. Neither the macro-economic or technical factors from the market timing model have worsened since we increased the hedge earlier this year. Therefore, our market exposure remained virtually unchanged at 37.3%, which ex-post is admittedly more defensive than an investor would’ve liked to be in 2019 – at least so far...
Werner, Thierry and Nils